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Gold's fall from 1424.3 might still be in progress but still we'd expect strong support at 1315.8, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 1155.6 to 1424.3 at 1321.7, to contained downside and bring rebound. Above 1359.3 will flip intraday bias back to the upside and bring strong recovery. However, decisive break of 1315.8 will argue that whole rise from 1155.6 is finished and deeper decline could then be seen towards 1266.5 resistance turned support instead.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1155.6 is treated as the fifth wave of the five wave sequence from 1044.5, which should also be fifth wave of the rally from 681 (2008 low). Such rally is still expected to continue towards 161.8% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1449.6 before completion. Though, we're aware of long term projection target of 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 and we'd anticipate strong resistance from there to bring medium term correction finally. On the downside, however, break of 1315.8 support will be an early alert of medium term reversal and will turn focus back to 1155.6 support for confirmation.
Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart
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