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Gold's correction from 1388.1 extended further last week and the break of 1325.6 support confirmed that a short term top is at least formed. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1155.6 to 1388.1 at 1299.3 and below. On the upside, above 1349.6 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for a test on 1388.1 first.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1155.6 is treated as the fifth wave of the five wave sequence from 1044.5, which should also be fifth wave of the rally from 681 (2008 low). While a short term top is in place at 1388.1, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Recent up trend could still extend further to 161.8% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1449.6 before completion. Though, we're aware of long term projection target of 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 and we'd anticipate strong resistance from there to bring medium term correction finally. On the downside, however, break of 1266.5 resistance turned support will be an early alert of medium term reversal and will turn focus back to 1155.6 support for confirmation.
In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253. The anticipated correction didn't happen and gold will now likely climb further to 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 before making a top.
Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Weekly Chart
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Monthly Chart
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