China could be betting against a U.S. housing recovery

From OilPrice.com:

This just might be the chart of the year. Chinese buying U.S. government agency bonds.

... Data released last week show buying fell off a cliff in September. In fact, China sold a net $26.3 billion in agency bonds during the month.

This is China's largest monthly net sale ever (by far). And could be a sign China is betting against any kind of U.S. housing recovery.

Agency bonds are issued by government entities mainly in the housing finance sector. Such as Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, both controversial entities during the financial crisis that were eventually bailed out by the government.

As the chart shows...

Read full article (with chart)...

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The shocking CNBC headline of the day

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Real estate insider: Housing crash will surpass the Great Depression

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The worst silver trade you could make right now

From Resource Investor:

The pressure on silver shorts has been relentlessly increasing on a daily basis. On the heels of CFTC's statement of intention to actually enforce antitrust regulations in the silver market, two lawsuits were filed against JPMorgan and HSBC for manipulating the silver price. With the testimony of whistleblower Andrew Maguire and admission that there has been fraudulent activity in the silver market by CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton, these lawsuits have a much larger chance of success than just a year ago.

One of those lawsuits is seeking group or class action status if enough investors sign up. Silver investors who suffered from losses…

Read full article…

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JPMorgan and HSBC now being sued over silver manipulation

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View the original article here

Bond king Bill Gross: Fed "Ponzi" scheme could kill the bond bull market

Bill Gross, manager of the world's largest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said a renewal of asset purchases by the Federal Reserve will likely signify the end of the 30-year bull market in bonds.

"Check writing in the trillions is not a bondholder's friend," Gross wrote in his monthly investment outlook posted on Newport Beach, California-based Pimco's website today. "It is in fact inflationary, and, if truth be told, somewhat of a Ponzi scheme. It raises bond prices to create the illusion of high annual returns, but ultimately it reaches a dead end where those prices can no longer go up."

The Fed, led by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, will announce another round of large-scale asset purchases when policy makers meet next week after deploying $1.7 trillion to pull the economy out of the financial crisis, according to a survey of the 18 primary dealers that trade debt with the central bank. Fed officials, who already cut interest rates almost to zero, are discussing more purchases of Treasurys to flood markets with cheap money as well as strategies for raising inflation expectations to prevent stagnating prices from undermining the recovery.

Gross, a founder and co-chief investment officer of Pimco, said in March that bonds may have seen their best days while making an argument for investors to own fewer. He reduced holdings of government-related debt in the Total Return Fund for the third straight month in September, after the securities accounted for 63 percent of assets in June, the highest since it held an equal amount in October 2009.

Less Government Debt

The $252 billion Total Return Fund's investment in government debt was cut to 33 percent of assets in September, from 36 percent the previous month, according to the company's website. Pimco doesn't comment directly on monthly changes in portfolio holdings.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped from a 2010 high of 4.01 percent in April to a low of 2.33 percent on Oct. 8, according to Bloomberg data, as investors purchased Treasurys in anticipation of further asset purchases by the central bank. The record of 2.04 percent was set in December 2008.

"Having arrived at its destination, the market then offers near zero percent returns and a picking of the creditor's pocket via inflation and negative real interest rates," Gross wrote. "It will likely signify the end of a great 30-year bull market in bonds and the necessity for bond managers and, yes, equity managers to adjust to a new environment," Gross wrote.

Deflation Threat

Treasurys have returned 8.3 percent this year after losing 3.7 percent in 2009, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes.

The Fed is driven to further easing due to low inflation and a threat of deflation, where falling asset prices, including home values, result in consumers and businesses that are less willing to spend and invest. Inflation, a rise in the prices of goods and services, would enable more value, production and consumer activity.

"This is not a Bernanke scheme, because this is his only alternative and he shares no responsibility for its origin," Gross wrote. "I call it a Sammy scheme, in honor of Uncle Sam and the politicians -- as well as citizens -- who have brought us to this critical moment in time. You and I, and the politicians that we elect every two years, deserve all the blame."

Volcker Fed

Policy makers have historically focused on containing inflation rather than preventing deflation. Core consumer prices, which exclude food and fuel, were little changed in September, capping a 0.8 percent increase in the past 12 months, the smallest year-over-year gain since 1961.

Inflation climbed to a 14.8 percent annual rate in March 1980, driving 10-year yields to 13.65 percent that year and to an all-time high of 15.8 percent the following year. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker broke the back of inflation by raising rates as high as 20 percent, even as the economy slipped into the longest post-World War II recession to win back confidence among investors.

By the time Volcker stepped down from the Fed in 1987, inflation slowed to 4.3 percent and benchmark borrowing costs were 6.75 percent.

'Liquidity Trap'

"We are, as even some Fed Governors now publically admit, in a 'liquidity trap,' where interest rates or trillions in QEII asset purchases may not stimulate borrowing or lending because consumer demand is just not there," Gross wrote. "Escaping from a liquidity trap may be impossible, much like light trapped in a black hole."

Under what Pimco calls the "new normal," investors should expect lower-than-average historical returns with heightened regulation, lower consumption, slower growth and a shrinking global role for the U.S. economy.

"If QEII cannot reflate capital markets, if it can't produce 2 percent inflation and an assumed reduction of unemployment rates back towards historical levels, then it will be a long, painful slog back to prosperity," Gross wrote.

As part of adjusting to a new normal, Pimco began offering equity funds in April, and had inflows of about $1 billion, Pimco said in September. The firm moved into stocks to allow customers to diversify their holdings as the global economy changes and areas such as emerging markets outperform developed regions.

Pimco added to its mortgage holdings in September to 28 percent of assets, from 21 percent the prior month. Pimco also expanded its emerging-market debt to 12 percent last month, the highest since at least September 2006. Non-U.S. developed debt was unchanged at 6 percent.

The Total Return Fund, also the world's biggest mutual fund, handed investors a gain of about 11.78 percent in the past year, beating about 76 percent of its peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Pimco, a unit of Munich-based insurer Allianz SE, managed $1.236 trillion of assets as of September.

View the original article here

This regions's food riots could set off the dollar crisis

From Sovereign Man:

...The Sri Lankan rupee has remained artificially suppressed against the dollar while agricultural commodity prices have been steadily rising in dollar terms. This makes food more expensive to locals in Sri Lanka.

To give you an example, prices for staple food items like coconuts have risen by 30% in the last two months, sparking calls by the left-leaning government to control prices and regulate consumer behavior.

We all know that these sorts of policies never end well...

Read full article...

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Legendary advisor Jim Grant: The world is abandoning the U.S. dollar

View the original article here

This could become a huge problem for banks and financials

From Newsmax:

Top legal officers of all 50 states opened a joint investigation into home foreclosures, saying they will seek an immediate halt to any improper practices at banks and mortgage companies.

The states will conduct a coordinated inquiry into whether banks and loan servicers used false documents and signatures to justify hundreds of thousands of foreclosures. The group intends to establish independent monitoring, Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller, who is leading the group, said today in a statement.

"The financial institutions would be well served by working with us to get it cleaned up...

Read full article...

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The most important news from last week you heard nothing about

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The first signs of hyperinflation could be appearing now

From Gonzalo Lira:

This post is gonna be short and sweet—and scary:

Back in late August, I argued that hyperinflation would be triggered by a run on Treasury bonds. I described how such a run might happen, and argued that if Treasurys were no longer considered safe, then commodities would become the store of value.

Such a run on commodities, I further argued, would inevitably lead to price increases and a rise in the Consumer Price Index, which would initially be interpreted by the Federal Reserve, the Federal government, as well as the commentariat, as a good thing: A sign that "the economy is recovering", a sign that "normalcy" was returning.

I argued that—far from being "a sign of recovery"—rising CPI would be the sign that things were about to get ugly...

Read full article...

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Buy gold, silver, and tiny bottles of scotch

Legendary trader Vic Sperandeo sees serious risk of hyperinflation

Porter Stansberry: U.S. is headed for one of the worst inflations in history

View the original article here

Six dividend stocks that could generate "mind-boggling" yields on cost

From Dividend Growth Investor:

Some of the best dividend stocks in the world are characterized by strong competitive advantages, which have allowed them to charge premium prices for their recognizable brands, which in turn have translated into rising profits. Most of those companies are also characterized by high returns on invested capital, which means that they generate more capital than they could successfully reinvest back into the business and still retain their high returns.

As a result these companies manage to provide an ever increasing stream of dividend income to their long-term shareholders. While stock prices move higher during bubbles and lower during recessions, investors keep getting paid for holding their stocks. In fact, because dividends keep getting increased…

Read full article...
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Could U.S. government really be that stupid about gold?

On October 12, 2010, Edwin (Ted) Truman wrote an article for the Financial Times of London in which he suggested that the US Treasury should sell all of its gold reserves:

http://www.gata.org/node/9150

Ted Truman is not just anybody. He is a former Federal Reserve economist and is well connected. This means that we should not write off his comments as idle chatter. Although it seems highly unlikely that such a wholesale liquidation of the U.S. gold reserves could ever be approved, it is interesting to study the implications if it were to happen. I will show you why it would be the most stupid thing the government could ever do.

Let's first revisit what has been the evolution of the U.S. dollar. Until 1933 the United States was on a gold standard. Money was gold. Gold was deposited in banks for safekeeping and bank notes or Federal Reserve Notes (FRNs) were given in exchange. These notes were redeemable at any time for the gold on deposit at the rate of $20.67/oz (increased to $35/oz in 1933 by the Franklin Roosevelt administration).

So the dollar was a deposit slip for gold. If you wanted to buy something, you could retrieve your gold from the bank by redeeming dollars and paying with gold. However, the seller of the item would probably deposit the gold in a bank and receive dollars in return. It was simpler to pay with dollars. So gold was the money while dollars were only a convenient proxy for the money; the dollar was the circulating currency but was not intrinsically worth anything except in being able to retrieve a gold deposit.

In 1933 the U.S. government confiscated privately held monetary gold. The dollar was still a proxy for gold but a citizen could not redeem his bank notes. Only foreign central banks could redeem dollars for gold. President Nixon suspended even that much convertibility in 1971.

The only change was in the redeemability of dollars. The dollar was not redefined. In fact Nixon "temporarily suspended" convertibility of dollars for gold; that temporary suspension is still in force today. This means that all dollars issued represent a claim against the U.S. gold reserve, but it is an irredeemable claim.

If you think that doesn't make sense, let's consider another example.

ExxonMobil issues shares in the company. The value of these shares is principally driven by the oil reserves the company owns. But the shares cannot be redeemed for oil or any other asset of the company; rather the shares are a claim against the assets of ExxonMobil. If the company were to sell its oil assets and liquidate the company, a shareholder would be paid a percentage share of the liquidation value based on his percentage ownership of the company.

To explain the dollar and its relationship to gold I have written a parody which is as follows:

In 1913 a company is established called the Federal Valet Parking Board (FVPB). FVPB establishes branches all over the country. You take your car to FVPB and you are given a valet parking ticket (VPT). At any time you can redeem your ticket and get your car back. FVPB brokers a special deal with the government that allows people to use their VPT as currency. A law obliges everyone to accept these VPT as payment. No one objects because the tickets can be redeemed for a car at any time. People find it convenient to spend their VPTs.

Unfortunately, the FVPB is corrupt and prints more Valet Parking Tickets without parking any more cars in the parking lot. People start to suspect a scam. They rush to redeem their VPTs and take back their cars. The first ones to redeem think they are lucky because they get their cars back, but latecomers are told there are no cars in the parking lot.

"How can this be?" the people demand. "I have a Valet Parking Ticket so I want my car back."

The FVPB is in trouble. The government steps in and makes it illegal to own a car. This promptly prevents anyone from asking for his car to be returned. Even the people who were lucky enough to get their cars back are told that they must return their cars to the FVPB or risk a fine or imprisonment. These hapless individuals dutifully cave in and return their cars and they are given VPTs in return. The people are still forced by law to accept VPTs as currency but the corrupt FVPB continues to print and issue more of them. As no one can retrieve a single car from the parking lot with a VPT, there is no restraint on how many VPTs the FVPB can issue.

In 2010 an economist who is also a car expert remarks that the FVPB has millions of cars gathering dust that are of no use. He proposes that the FVPB should sell them all. The government and the FVPB think this is a terrific idea. One fine day the parking lots are opened up and the people flock in to buy the cars. And what does the FVPB accept as payment for the cars?

Why, VPTs, of course! But due to the massive printing of VPTs that has gone on over the years that has increased the supply of VPTs while the stock of cars has remained constant, the FVPB insists that the people have to give 100 Valet Parking Tickets to be given a car instead of the one ticket originally issued for each car. At the end of the operation the people have the cars and the FVPB has all the tickets.

If the FVPB has only tickets and no cars, what do you think the street value of these VPTs is? Absolutely worthless.

The parallel with the U.S. gold reserves should be obvious. The gold reserve belongs to the people but the Treasury holds it and refuses to give it back. It instead issues Federal Reserve Notes using the gold reserve as collateral, but the FRNs are irredeemable in gold. If the government could truly be that stupid to adopt Ted Truman's proposal to sell the U.S. gold reserve in exchange for Federal Reserve notes, then for the first time since 1933 and only "while stocks last" the FRNs could be exchanged for gold. This would allow a lucky few to buy gold in exchange for the FRNs. The government would no doubt brag about what a great deal it has have made by getting billions of dollars for the gold but, just like the VPTs, with the underlying collateral having been disposed of, the FRNs would have zero value.

The government claims to have 261.5 million ounces of gold but this doesn't belong to the government; it belongs to the citizens. By being the custodian of the gold and refusing to give it to the holders of FRNs, the government appears to have a very valuable asset, but the truth is that this asset is offset by the corresponding liability of all the FRNs that have been issued against it. So in fact the government has no net assets, just like the FVPB had no net assets of its own.

If the asset is sold off for FRNs, then the FRNs will become worthless and with no collateral it would be impossible to issue a new currency that anyone would accept. The solution that would no doubt be top of the list would be to confiscate the gold back again.

This is why I ask: Could the government really be that stupid?

But I expect it is Ted Truman who thinks that gold investors are that stupid to think it would be gold and not the dollar that would suffer and that they could be intimidated to dishoard their gold in a panic by just suggesting in his article that the United States should sell its gold reserves.

Nice try, Mr. Truman, but no cigar.

What is revealed by this analysis is that if the U.S. gold reserve has already been sold off surreptitiously or partially or entirely encumbered in some way, then confirmation of that would be extremely detrimental to the dollar. Once you realize this you can grasp why an audit of the U.S. gold reserve is not an academic exercise and why the Federal Reserve is vigorously opposing GATA's Freedom of Information Act request to determine if the gold reserve has been subject to swap arrangements.

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GOP Gains Could Tarnish <b>Gold</b>

Dan Dorfman: GOP Gains Could Tarnish Gold HPFB.init();
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Dan DorfmanFinancial Columnist, Market Commentator

Posted: October 15, 2010 12:45 PMBIOBecome a FanGet Email AlertsBloggers' Indexfunction hide_user_promo_bubble_second_stage() {var bubble = $("user_promo_bubble");bubble.style.display = "none";}function hide_user_promo_bubble() {var bubble = $("user_promo_bubble");var myAnim = new YAHOO.util.Anim(bubble, {opacity: {to: 0}}, 1, YAHOO.util.Easing.easeOut);myAnim.animate();setTimeout("hide_user_promo_bubble_second_stage()", 1100);}function handle_promo_username(params) {var bubble = $("user_promo_bubble");var img = $("user_promo_bubble_image");var anchor = $("user_promo_bubble_link");if (params.has_photo == "true") {img.src = "http://images.huffingtonpost.com/profiles/" + params.user_id + "-tiny.png";} else {img.style.display = "none";Dom.addClass(anchor, "wide");}anchor.innerHTML = "Shared by " + params.user_name;anchor.href = "http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/" + params.user_name;bubble.style.display = "block";var myAnim = new YAHOO.util.Anim(bubble, {opacity: {to: 1}}, 2, YAHOO.util.Easing.easeOut);myAnim.animate();}if (HuffPoUtil.getUrlVar("user_promo")) {YAHOO.util.Event.onDOMReady(function() {var parts = document.location.hash.split(","), shared_by = "", badge = "", i;if (parts.length GOP Gains Could Tarnish Gold What's Your Reaction: HPConfig.entry_digg_promo_url = 'http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dan-dorfman/gop-gains-a-no-vote-for-g_b_764086.html';digg facebook Twitter stumble redditdel.ico.us Inspiring
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"Like a dog in heat; it just won't stop," says Costa Rican money manager Felix Heligmann.

No, it's not sex he's talking about, but the seemingly non-stop surge in the price of gold, the world's hottest investment and the darling of the jitters crowd.

"Gold has momentum, strong fundamentals, new buyers are rushing in daily from around the globe, and the way it's climbing, it should be stored on one of those space shuttles in Cape Canaveral because it looks like it's headed for the moon," he says.

Maybe yes, but then again, maybe no because over the next few weeks, gold could run into a cold spell, a victim no less of the upcoming elections.

Or, put another way, those letters, G-O-P, which stand for the Grand Old Party, could take on an added meaning: Gold Off Price.

That's basically a warning from Richard Bogey, the research chief of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, a 70-year-old think tank whose work (analyzing political and economic data that dates back 5,000 years) is based on the simple fundamental principle that all of nature, and most of history, is driven by regular cyclical patterns.

Taking note of the huge run in gold -- which traded at $272 in 2000, then nearly doubled to $517 at year-end 2005 and then more than doubled again to a recent all-time high of $1,388.10 in December futures -- Bogey contends a correction is long overdue.

Accordingly, he believes if there's a whiff of any kind of fiscal conservatism that could get government spending under control -- through, say, the Republicans winning the House -- gold could whacked for a loss of about $100 to $200 an ounce over the next six weeks.

But he hastens to add that "any such decline would present a buying opportunity because gold will then go right back up."

Why So? Because, he says, no politician has the guts to cut the big deficit producers, such as the defense budget, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. The cycles, he notes, also suggest gold could top at around $2,400 an ounce in 2012.

Heligmann, taking note of the slumping greenback, also sees gold weakening somewhat over the near term should the Republicans, as he expects, score sizable gains in the elections. But like Bogey, he thinks any gold weakness would be short-lived. "Republican gains simply assure more political gridlock, and the gold market will view that as a positive," he says.

Heligmann, who manages about $93 million of family and friends' assets, presently has about 17% of it in gold and gold-related securities, up from close to 10% a year-earlier.

"With the U. S. dollar index recently falling to a 10-month low, excessive money creation and the global economy in turmoil, you have to be nuts not to have at least a small holding in gold," he says.

Generally, most precious metal bulls expect gold to fetch a $1,400-an ounce price tag within a matter of weeks and $1,500 before year end, followed by an additional advance to $2,000, $3,000 or perhaps $5,000 over the next few years.

Goldman Sachs has also climbed aboard the gold bandwagon, recently predicting a 12-month rise to $1,650 based on another round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve and the possibility long-term interest rates will continue to fall.

If gold's meteoric rise and the accompanying hype strike you as a glowing example of what bubbles are all about, you may well be right. Though the key question, of course, as one reader aptly put it, is whether the modern gold rush is actually a mania, or in fact, a legitimate reflection of serious financial and economic stresses.

One astute online gold mind, Mark Leibovit, editor of the VR Gold Letter in Sedona, Ariz., casts his ballot for the latter, noting, too, that global debasement of currencies from 24/7 money printing is yet another catalyst that practically assures even higher gold prices ahead.

He cautions, though, that a long and bumpy gold ride is well under way. Expect to see $100 swings in gold and possibly $300 to $500 swings in the months and years ahead, he says. But those who hang on, he contends, should continue to do well.

In his latest Gold Letter issue, Leibovit warns against fully trusting the equity markets, arguing that the years ahead could host bank and stock exchange closures. In that event, he notes, owning physical gold, as well as such other metals as silver, platinum, and palladium, will feel awfully good at the time.

What about possible near-term corrections? Leibovit's view: "Any corrections along the way will be gifts, allowing us to buy gold more cheaply."

In the event of a pullback, I emailed-him, which would be his top gold buys? Among his best bets are two gold exchange-traded funds, Market Vectors Jr. Gold (GDEXJ) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU), and the Central Fund of Canada (CEF).

James Turk, chairman of bullion dealer GoldMoney, thinks the recent rally that produced record gold prices should extend itself over the next five years as the U.S. struggles out of a recession and confidence in paper currencies diminishes.

As for the risks, Turk figures the chief threat to gold is a reversal of the trend toward currency devaluations and a swing to broad monetary tightening, but he considers this unlikely over the near term, what with the U.S. in particular on a bumpy road to a significant economic recovery.

The bottom line: Whether the coming elections could temporarily take the shine off the yellow metal is anybody's guess, but for now, at least, gold's fundamentals continue to look golden.

What do you think? E-mail me at Dandordan@aol.com.

  Goldman SachsEconomyGOPHealth Care"Like a dog in heat; it just won't stop," says Costa Rican money manager Felix Heligmann.No, it's not sex he's talking about, but the seemingly non-stop surge in the price of gold, the world's hotte..."Like a dog in heat; it just won't stop," says Costa Rican money manager Felix Heligmann.No, it's not sex he's talking about, but the seemingly non-stop surge in the price of gold, the world's hotte... Related News On Huffington Post:  
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Post to Facebook.Post to Blogger.Post to Twitter.Post to WordPress.Post to TypePad.Post to Tumblr.Post to Yahoo! View All Favorites Recency  |  Popularity HUFFPOST SUPER USER babyspittle   2 minutes ago (8:59 PM) 38 Fans Follow Interest in gold is being inflated by right wing hysteria and con men (beck: "buy gold!!") babyspittle: Interest in gold is being inflated by right wing hysteria http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/babyspittle/gop-gains-a-no-vote-for-g_b_764086_63870265.html Permalink  | Share it wdtaylor   21 minutes ago (8:41 PM) 0 Fans Persons looking to sell their gold jewelry to cash in should make sure they understand how much pure gold their jewelry pieces contain and keep up with current prices to get the best deal when selling to a gold buyer. Some buyers will only offer a low percentage (30% - 40%) of the actual pure gold value to an uninformed seller. Let the buyer beware!

A legitimate buyer should offer a high percentage of the actual pure gold value (80% - 90%).

Their is a great Android Application on the Android Market that will calculate what your jewelry is worth in real time called "Gold Value Calculator". It is a free app. It helped me know what my gold pieces where worth when I recently sold them to a gold buyer. wdtaylor: Persons looking to sell their gold jewelry to cash in http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/wdtaylor/gop-gains-a-no-vote-for-g_b_764086_63868413.html Permalink  | Share it Michael Sandy   7 hours ago (1:42 PM) 9 Fans How can one take a financial adviser seriously if they base their advice on obviously inaccurate presumptions? He expects Republicans to "reign in spending'? Has he been under a rock for the past ten years? Republicans spend on whatever and whoever it takes to get votes, but unlike Democrats, they aren't responsible enough to plan for taxes to pay for them. Michael_Sandy: How can one take a financial adviser seriously if they http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Michael_Sandy/gop-gains-a-no-vote-for-g_b_764086_63819952.html Permalink  | Share it     New comments on this entry — Click to refresh Loading comments… Loading twitter module... Most Popular on HuffPost1D6W1lj5M6WK9G8HrrNmPpYjwnutIsA46NL64OmpEOjb1lq3M1nnXStPpC5bBiUohfY3%2F7003BtIw6M0ROAc%2Bw%3D%3DCvAnOteXEp223IerqcDhw5BVOrc3vXju10iC2cbJapVR3qP586m4XIr2AiiEDses7i4UHhMxJdlJJ63IcUnVQw%3D%3D1 of 2 Whoopi, Joy Walk Off 'The View' After Heated Fight With O'Reilly
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