Showing posts with label Leverage. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Leverage. Show all posts

Friday, November 26, 2010

Can We Leverage Silver Manipulation Revelations to Get the SEC’s Mary Shapiro...

The CFTC’s Bart Chilton’s recent allegations of silver manipulation in the COMEX markets definitely can be leveraged to spur further investigations of possible fraud in gold/silver markets by the bankers. I have maintained for several years now that bankers invented the SLV and GLD ETFs as part of their overall price suppression schemes enacted against gold and silver.

Can the CFTC’s bold statement now spur the SEC’s Mary Shapiro to respond to past inquiries about the legitimacy of the GLD and SLV and thoroughly investigate these two ETFs for possible fraud?

SEC Headquarters

Chairman Mary Shapiro
100 F Street, NE
Washington, DC 20549
(202) 942-8088

Enforcement Complaint Center

Enf-Search@sec.gov

In July, 2009, I wrote an article called “The GLD and SLV: Legitimate Investment Vehicles or Not?” that pointed out the most troubling aspects of these two ETFs that led me to conclude that I would never hold either of these two ETFs. I’ve extracted and reprinted some of the most prominent points from this article below:

The appointed custodians of the SLV and the GLD, responsible for safekeeping the silver and gold bars owned by the trusts, respectively are JP Morgan and HSBC Bank USA. The GLD prospectus states, “Gold held in the Trust’s unallocated gold account and any Authorized Participant’s unallocated gold account will not be segregated from the Custodian’s assets.” Only Authorized Participants, and no shareholders, have the right to redeem shares for actual gold.

In my opinion, there are several potential huge problems with this arrangement. Physical gold held by the GLD should be held in allocated accounts specifically for the trust. The fact that physical gold held for the GLD may be held in unallocated gold accounts where gold is not segregated from the Custodian’s assets may mean that multiple entities have claims on the same gold bars. In theory, the gold held in the Custodian’s vaults may be used for delivery against shorts they hold in the futures markets while if necessary even though GLD shareholders have a claim on this gold.

The prospectus states that “the Custodian has agreed that it will hold all of the Trust’s gold bars in its own London vault premises except when the gold bars have been allocated in a vault other than the Custodian’s London vault premises” (emphasis mine). The prospectus then goes on to explain that other vaults allowed may reside at the Bank of England, Brinks Ltd., Via Mat International, and LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) market making members, and that in turn, these subcustodians may appoint further subcustodians to hold the trust’s gold if they so desire.  In regard to ensuring that the gold actually exists, the prospectus then states that “the Trustee may have no right to visit the premises of any subcustodian for the purposes of examining the Trust’s gold bars or any records maintained by the subcustodian, and no subcustodian will be obligated to cooperate in any review the Trustee may wish to conduct of the facilities, procedures, records or creditworthiness of such subcustodian.”

In the SLV prospectus, the following claim is also made: “Accordingly, the bulk of the trust’s silver holdings (emphasis mine) is represented by physical silver.” If the bulk of the trust’s silver holdings is represented by physical silver, what constitutes the “remainder”? Clearly, the SLV prospectus states that there is a “remainder”. If you read this statement carefully, the statement clearly refers to the “trust’s silver holdings.” Thus, this statement implies that some of the SLV’s funds are allocated to something else other than physical silver. So what is the rest of the trust’s silver holdings? Paper silver future contracts, air, or something else?

J.S. Kim

SmartKnowledgeU

  JS Kim is the Managing Director and Founder of SmartKnowledgeU, a fiercely independent investment consulting and research firm that devises investment strategies to protect Main Street from the fraud of Wall Street.

Article originally published here


View the original article here

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Want Leverage to Gold and Silver? Avoid the Large-Caps

Days ago I was watching Peter Schiff on Yahoo Tech Ticker. Normally, I find myself in agreement with Schiff. This time, however I disagreed with his comments on the gold stocks. He was saying to buy GDX because the large-cap stocks were priced for a decline in Gold. He also said the speculative juniors were going nowhere. These things may be true and play out in his favor over the coming months and years.

However, the reality is that over time, large-cap gold stocks do not outperform Gold. If you want leverage, the large caps are a terrible place to go. Steve Saville has a great commentary on this. Over time, large cap miners struggle to replace reserves and grow production. The larger you are, the more new resources you have to find and the more cash intensive the business (exploration, extraction, production) becomes. While it is likely that the large-caps will rise in the coming years, it is dangerous to assume they will outperform Gold. That would be going against history.

Even the unhedged large-caps can't outperform Gold consistently, as the following chart shows. Aside from major bottoms in 2001 and late 2008, the HUI/Gold ratio has basically trended sideways or down.


However, note the recent leverage in both GDXJ and TGLDX (Tocqueville Gold Fund). If you want more consistent leverage, go with the juniors or John Hathaway's Fund and avoid GDX altogether.

In regards to the juniors, our 25-stock index has performed quite well both nominally and in real terms. Next are two charts that show the performance in real terms.



I am not sure which juniors Peter Schiff is referring to but the juniors we follow have performed very well. It is clear that the juniors are the place to be if you want growth and leverage. The juniors, when measured against Gold have recovered significantly, while the HUI (GDX) has only recovered less than half of its losses against Gold. Also we can see the when measured against the HUI, the juniors have made a major breakout.

Part of the reason for junior outperformance is the increasing number of takeovers. This is no surprise as many analysts have expected this. Majors are taking over intermediates and large juniors while large juniors are taking over smaller juniors. It is happening across the spectrum. Simply put, in most cases it is easier and more cost effective for a company to grow via acquisition than via in house exploration and development. This makes many juniors a takeover candidate.

Recently, two of our five junior gold recommendations have been taken-over. We seek to find quality companies that offer value but have growth potential while exhibiting positive technicals. If they are taken-over, it becomes a huge bonus.

If you a precious metals investor seeking growth, you have to have some foothold in the juniors. Playing GDX or a basket of large-caps will likely leave you disappointed. In our service we seek to steer investors towards the stocks that offer not only value but also growth potential. Thus far, two of our first five junior gold picks have been taken-over. We invite you to consider a free 14-day trial as we seek to find the next takeover candidates.


View the original article here

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Want Leverage to Gold and Silver? Avoid the Large-Caps

Days ago I was watching Peter Schiff on Yahoo Tech Ticker. Normally, I find myself in agreement with Schiff. This time, however I disagreed with his comments on the gold stocks. He was saying to buy GDX because the large-cap stocks were priced for a decline in Gold. He also said the speculative juniors were going nowhere. These things may be true and play out in his favor over the coming months and years.

However, the reality is that over time, large-cap gold stocks do not outperform Gold. If you want leverage, the large caps are a terrible place to go. Steve Saville has a great commentary on this. Over time, large cap miners struggle to replace reserves and grow production. The larger you are, the more new resources you have to find and the more cash intensive the business (exploration, extraction, production) becomes. While it is likely that the large-caps will rise in the coming years, it is dangerous to assume they will outperform Gold. That would be going against history.

Even the unhedged large-caps can't outperform Gold consistently, as the following chart shows. Aside from major bottoms in 2001 and late 2008, the HUI/Gold ratio has basically trended sideways or down.


However, note the recent leverage in both GDXJ and TGLDX (Tocqueville Gold Fund). If you want more consistent leverage, go with the juniors or John Hathaway's Fund and avoid GDX altogether.

In regards to the juniors, our 25-stock index has performed quite well both nominally and in real terms. Next are two charts that show the performance in real terms.



I am not sure which juniors Peter Schiff is referring to but the juniors we follow have performed very well. It is clear that the juniors are the place to be if you want growth and leverage. The juniors, when measured against Gold have recovered significantly, while the HUI (GDX) has only recovered less than half of its losses against Gold. Also we can see the when measured against the HUI, the juniors have made a major breakout.

Part of the reason for junior outperformance is the increasing number of takeovers. This is no surprise as many analysts have expected this. Majors are taking over intermediates and large juniors while large juniors are taking over smaller juniors. It is happening across the spectrum. Simply put, in most cases it is easier and more cost effective for a company to grow via acquisition than via in house exploration and development. This makes many juniors a takeover candidate.

Recently, two of our five junior gold recommendations have been taken-over. We seek to find quality companies that offer value but have growth potential while exhibiting positive technicals. If they are taken-over, it becomes a huge bonus.

If you a precious metals investor seeking growth, you have to have some foothold in the juniors. Playing GDX or a basket of large-caps will likely leave you disappointed. In our service we seek to steer investors towards the stocks that offer not only value but also growth potential. Thus far, two of our first five junior gold picks have been taken-over. We invite you to consider a free 14-day trial as we seek to find the next takeover candidates.


View the original article here