The Long and Short of What’s Happening With Silver These Days

By Chris Mack with Lorimer Wilson

Something has drastically changed in the silver market. The banks that once controlled the price of silver are now closing positions at a loss. The commercial shorts have begun to bleed money – and when blood spills sharks will circle. Hedge funds and traders that never even thought of silver before will begin to squeeze the shorts. If the big banks don't quickly regain control of the silver market they may lose it forever.

Anyone following the futures market for silver knows that the large commercial traders, banks such as JPM, always win. That is until now. Let’s look at the history of short selling as it related to silver in the past, what has been occurring recently and what may unfold in the very near future as follows:

Then

During the bull market in silver that began in 2001, a pattern of trading similar to the “Martingale Betting Strategy” emerged in which 8 trading institutions sold short increasingly larger amounts of contracts into rallies until their sales volumes overwhelmed the market into a freefall. After the freefall they then repurchased those short positions at a profit and the rally process began again. This process of taking money from precious metals investors has been well documented by analysts such as Ted Butler, David Morgan, and others. The strategy was so successful that some futures traders began to front run the banks on their own using tactics such as the COT report and other sentiment indicators. As a result of their actions it has been argued that these large short positions have suppressed the price of silver by a multiple of itself. This may be proven sooner than many expected.

Recently

Over the last 6 weeks all was going according to plan. Silver rallied and the commercial banks shorted an ever larger amount of contracts as the open interest swelled to the point at which most silver analysts were expecting a correction. In the last 2 weeks silver rose by nearly $2 dollars and most were expecting to see an even larger commercial short position reflected in the COT report. Instead, the commercials actually covered 2297 contracts, and bought an additional 989 long contracts during the week of September 28th to October 5th when the price of silver rose by $1. The covering was down at what appeared to be a short term top to many.

The Near Future

While it can be speculated on how short covering could impact the market, a short squeeze could feed upon itself as it attracts capital. In five trading days of buying a net 3286 contracts the price of silver rose by $1. However the commercial banks are still a net 62,127 contracts short so at that linear rate it would take them 94 trading days to cover with a silver price of roughly $117. The resulting losses would be around $15 billion. Of course markets aren't linear and after the second or third week of covering traders would begin to purposefully front run and squeeze the commercial shorts so it is unlikely that the positions could be covered that low or if at all.

Conclusion

Unfortunately, those of you who were hoping for a correction to accumulate more silver may not get it here as a price reset may be on the horizon.

Chris Mack is President of Trade Placer (tradeplacer.com) which brings the “Power of Wallstreet on Mainstreet” to its readers. He can be contacted at info@tradeplacer.com.

Lorimer Wilson is editor of  www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com “A site/sight for sore eyes and inquisitive minds”  and www.munKNEE.com “It’s all about MONEY” and encourages all readers to sign up for its FREE weekly "Top 100 Stock Market, Asset Ratio & Economic Indicators in Review." He can be contacted at editor@munKNEE.com

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Revolucion ! It started happening day after tomorrow

The Wallace Street Journal

Wallace, Idaho – The following is a true story. It all started happening day after tomorrow:

Chaos continued to confound world energy and metal markets today on news that Venezuela would accept only silver for American oil payments at a rate  of 5 ounces of .999-fine silver per barrel of oil.

Hugo Chavez, president of the oil-exporting South American nation, said last Friday that Venezuela had sufficient “United States Fed promissory notes” in its foreign exchange accounts that it fears future accumulations would render Venezuela “far more susceptible to gyrations in the U.S. economy and foreign policy than we care to be. We don’t need no more stinking Yankee dollars,” he added.

Oil, prior to Chavez’s announcement, was trading for $75 Fednotes per barrel; silver for $12 per ounce. The Venezuela ratio of 5 ounces per barrel confused mainstream media analysts and sent the US dollar plummeting  in overnight trading as traders scrambled to get into silver or silver-equivalent gold physicals in anticipation of much higher opening prices tomorrow.

Chavez hinted that Venezuela would consider accepting silver- or gold-equivalent-backed paper currency in exchange for oil at the same ratio, but added, “I don’t think, other than the Liberty Dollar, that there  are any.”

“This is just plain dumb,” fumed Fox News analyst Bill O’Reilly. “It just goes to show you once again how backward and stupid South America is. Here’s Hugo Chavez, he can’t even add. He’s willing to take $60 worth of silver instead of $75 in cold, hard U.S. paper for his oil. Silver is a barbarous relic; it hasn’t been money for years! How dumb can you get?”

However, religious commentator Pat Robertson, sensing something more complicated was afoot, renewed his call for Chavez’s assassination. “Whatever he’s up to, it’s not going to be good for America. We’d better nip this Bolshevik in the bud, the CIA way,” Robertson said.

At 1.1 million barrels per day, Venezuela is the U.S.’ fourth-largest supplier of crude oil, behind Canada, Mexico and Saudi Arabia. Venezuela’s exports to the U.S. account for one-third of Venezuela’s total daily output  and 10 percent of U.S. total crude imports.

Weekend trading in Asia showed the effects of Venezuela’s oil-for-silver swap resulting in a rise in silver to $20/ounce and a commensurate jump in oil to $100/bbl. Gold was also up.

Analysts without television shows wondered where the United States would get enough silver to pay for its Venezuelan oil, even at the discounted rate of 5 million ounces per day. Prior to 1980, sufficient government and bank stockpiles existed in the U.S. to sustain Venezuelan imports for a year or longer. Now, however, all U.S. silver is gone and daily U.S. silver  production is a mere 107,397 ounces per day.

Fearing a collapse of the New York and Chicago silver contracts similar to the collapse of the London Metal Exchange nickel contract earlier this month, nervous holders of purchase contracts were already lined up around both exchanges early Sunday morning, hoping to be first in line for delivery when the NYMEX and CBOT opened Monday.

The same scene was reported around Bank of America, Citibank, Wells Fargo and other major federally-chartered banks in U.S. cities, where nervous depositors were hoping to be among the 3 percent actually able to redeem their accounts for cash.

In Washington, D.C., White House sources said the President would declare a “gasoline station holiday” on Monday for an indeterminate period of time, in hopes that “hoarders” would not abuse the crisis by filling up their automobiles. “This will not stand, and is proof that Venezuela is hiding weapons of mass destruction and has an active nuclear program under way,” a leaked copy of the President’s speech is purported to have him saying.

Elsewhere in Washington today, from the rooftop of the Federal Reserve building at 20th Street and Constitution Ave., several eyewitnesses reported seeing a large helicopter depart.

David Bond, editor

The Silver Valley Mining Journal

www.silverminers.com

Also by David Bond

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